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Post by Beth on Oct 21, 2015 23:34:53 GMT
The suggestion often is that Custer was intent on crossing and taking hostages but certainly at the point he was at with two companies he was not going to be able to do that. In fact I wonder even with five companies if he could cross the river successfully. Opinions? Gotta go. Cheers He might have grabbed a few hostages but how is he going to get out of there and where are they going to go? The NA would just have circle Custer and his men and do nothing and Custer would be stuck.
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Post by quincannon on Oct 22, 2015 0:44:57 GMT
Custer was on the wrong side of the river to launch an attack. Should not have been there. Should have known better than to go there.
That's not the real problem though.
The real problem is that Custer never dreamed that the Indians would come to the east side of that same river and attack him.
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mac
Brigadier General
Posts: 1,790
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Post by mac on Oct 22, 2015 2:28:50 GMT
Let's say everything went as Custer might expect. Reno holds long enough for Benteen to get to Keogh before he and his men DIP. Keogh moves on to Custer. The warriors at Ford B move to the north. Custer now has to make an opposed crossing at Ford D area. If he is opposed there by the same forces that built at Calhoun and in the valley I would say he is not getting across that river. Some cavalry may escape north but I do not see him securing his bank, getting men over fast enough to secure the other bank and then having anything left to actually assault the village. I fancy it just moves the disaster further north. Opinions? Cheers
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Post by quincannon on Oct 22, 2015 3:29:50 GMT
Custer was not going to get across that river with or without Reno being destroyed, Benteen up or not.
Ford B is to narrow. Ford(s) C canalize on the east side of the river, and with Ford(s) D you still have to deal with that pinched loop in the river behind the fording places and before you can reach the northern end of the villages. That pinch is a choke point preventing you from going across fast and deep.
All the Indians have to do if he tries a crossing is pile him up (delay the crossing0. After that the outcome is certain
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mac
Brigadier General
Posts: 1,790
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Post by mac on Oct 22, 2015 3:52:34 GMT
I am on a quick break and I had forgotten that loop. The final straw!! People want to argue about what Custer's plan was but from that side of the river there was no plan that could achieve any kind of positive outcome. Or am I missing something? Cheers
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Post by yanmacca on Oct 22, 2015 10:16:00 GMT
Mac, let’s say that he was certain that when he reached the northern fords he was going to ride through a large group of women, children and old folks, he may have excepted that there would be a few young men mixed in with the group who may resist, plus the expectation of any large band of warriors that could be in the area would probably just try and block him rather than attack him, I know this sounds crazy but he was probably under the illusion that he and his men would have their hands full trying to ride these Indians down rather than fight them.
Yan.
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colt45
First Lieutenant
Posts: 439
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Post by colt45 on Oct 22, 2015 15:00:52 GMT
The whole problem is that Custer kept trying to fix a broken plan. He at first thought he could envelop the village by moving up the bluffs. He saw from 3411, or should have seen, that the village was far larger than expected and that continuing to try and envelop is going to take way longer than it should. Instead of dropping that plan and heading back to ford A, he tries to fix the plan by pushing further north. He gets to ford B and discovers that he still hasn't gained the end of the village, so to fix that problem he moves even further north, still trying to make a busted plan work out. Finally at ford D, the terrain with the loop creates another barrier to a successful envelopment. So, now what? I don't think he ever considered what to do with all the refugees if he ever got across the river, as he must have seen, at least from the ford D area, that there were far too many refugees to handle, not to mention the warriors. And I agree that I don't think he ever considered the fact the Indians would cross over to the east side of the river and attack. I think he always believed they would stay in the valley and fight only a delaying action while the non-coms fled somewhere away from the troops.
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Post by quincannon on Oct 22, 2015 15:59:06 GMT
Let's just say for a moment that Reno goes in, Reno goes out, marries up with Benteen, and all offensive action on the part of the Indians stop.
Let's also say that Custer goes to Ford B, meets some small amount of opposition and pulls back to battle ridge, and then takes two companies off to Ford D. Meanwhile the Indians are satisfied in driving him away at B and make no offensive countermove.
Reno and Benteen are still going to have to take some time to get moving again, and probably follow the historical time parameter. The do move though, all of them, including the packs, northward to where Custer is on battle ridge.
How long will it take them to get there?
How long will it be before those forces can be assembled and prepared to attack?
Where would the regiment attack?
What time would it be when that attack is launched?
What time is it going to be dark?
What do the Indians have to do to meet that attack?
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colt45
First Lieutenant
Posts: 439
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Post by colt45 on Oct 22, 2015 16:28:26 GMT
Good questions, Chuck.
If we assumed Reno and Benteen are on Reno hill, and they move forward to Weir point around the 5:30-6pm timeframe, as they actually did, Custer would still have Keogh on battle ridge, and he, presumably is around ford D. With no hostile action on the part of the Indians, we could assume Reno/Benteen and the packs could reach the vicinity of Calhoun hill in about a half hour. Assembling and preparing for an attack could take up to an hour upon arrival at Calhoun hill.
As to where to attack, we could assume Custer would have Keogh meet him in the ford D area, giving Custer 5 companys. We could also assume he would have Reno with his combined battalions move to the high ground on either side of ford B and engage the village from the east side of the river. This would occupy the Indians while Custer crosses at ford D and hits the village from the north. As Custer drives southward, he picks up covering fire from Reno. Once he reaches ford B, he brings Reno across and the entire regiment can then sweep south, pushing the Indians toward the BigHorn mountains. Right where Terry didn't want them to go. Of course it will be getting dark by this time, and it also assumes the Indians sit around on their butts doing nothing while the army was maneuvering for this attack.
All in all, not attacking from the south in full force leaves no viable option for preventing scattering of the Indians or for accomplishing the mission of getting them back to the reservations.
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Post by yanmacca on Oct 22, 2015 17:55:15 GMT
By all accounts Benteen arrived too late to save Custer, as they saw the final moments as Indians moved around butchering and stripping the bodies, so let’s say that Benteen arrived about 30 minutes late, but if Custer had kept both the Yates and Keogh battalions together then could they have held out for that 30 minutes?
This would cause Benteen to make a drastic decision, does he try to break through? Does he wait and send word back to Reno for orders? It does however resemble the Reno predicament and what Benteen would have done if he moved to the sound of guns and viewed Reno stuck in the timber surrounded by the same Indians that now surrounded Custer.
Yan.
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Post by quincannon on Oct 22, 2015 19:16:01 GMT
Colt: I think you are overly generous with only a half hour from Reno Hill to a presumed assembly area somewhere in the Keogh Swale for Reno/Benteen and the packs. I make it at least an hour and I think I am being generous too.
Another hour to set up an attack and move into attack positions.
Now you are talking 1930 before the attack goes in with, being generous again, about an hours daylight left.
A single or two pronged attack makes decisions where to place themselves simple for the Indians.
Meanwhile, as you have said the families and all they can carry with them are heading southwest for the Big Horns.
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Post by yanmacca on Oct 22, 2015 19:21:39 GMT
I think it took Custer about an hour to get either from Reno creek or 3411, I cannot recall now which one it was.
Let's say for arguments sake one hour for Custer to move over the bluffs to 3411 and then traverse Cedar then MTC, now Benteen has to do it with a pack train.
Yan.
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Post by Beth on Oct 22, 2015 20:12:44 GMT
Custer was on the wrong side of the river to launch an attack. Should not have been there. Should have known better than to go there. That's not the real problem though. The real problem is that Custer never dreamed that the Indians would come to the east side of that same river and attack him. Did he think Indians couldn't swim? Seriously how could he possibly believe that a river wouldn't cross both ways. He should have realized that once he was discovered, he would have become a target even if it was just a screening action while the bulk of the village fled.
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Post by Beth on Oct 22, 2015 20:36:19 GMT
Custer was not going to get across that river with or without Reno being destroyed, Benteen up or not. Ford B is to narrow. Ford(s) C canalize on the east side of the river, and with Ford(s) D you still have to deal with that pinched loop in the river behind the fording places and before you can reach the northern end of the villages. That pinch is a choke point preventing you from going across fast and deep. All the Indians have to do if he tries a crossing is pile him up (delay the crossing0. After that the outcome is certain So if the loop in the river makes Ford D a no go as well what were they doing staying in the area so long? Trying to decide what to do next? What were the options left? I wonder what point, if any Custer realized he needed perhaps try to go back south? This is absolute pure spitballing would it have been possible for Custer to think with the men he had that he could control Ford D to prevent the NA from going further North--sort of bottling them in the valley hopefully until Terry arrived? Can't you use a much smaller force to contain a larger force? (Obviously it wouldn't work because he had too many places the NA could breach his lines--either to fight or come nightfall slip away.) As for sunlight, at least the battle would have taken place on a day where they had almost the longest daylight possible
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Post by quincannon on Oct 22, 2015 22:29:15 GMT
So yes it was nearest the longest day of the year, and when you attack on an east to west axis what happens?
I am not at all sure that pinch point in the river loop could be detected before crossing over the river at D. I would suspect they would not discover it until they bunched up trying to thread the needle. You can bet your last red cent the Indians both knew where it was and how to use it though.
In the scenario I presented it was pretty obvious that Custer would try to get over at D.
Unlike Colt I don't think he would divide again and have supporting fires down around B.
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