I want to correct some errors or bad assumptions
(in my earlier posts on these subjects) concerning manning, training, marksmanship, etc. I have indicated edits in this post with italics, underlines, or strikethroughs. I placed a heavily rewritten section and the battle of the Rosebud in the quote boxes.
The corrections are from
A Terrible Glordy by James Donovan: You can get it for from 11.99 - 16.50 depending on used books, Kindle, Paper or Hardback. It has the virtue of being extensively footnoted.
I do not have the resources to go check the footnotes for accuracy.Maps. They had crap for Maps. Donovan says they used the
Raynolds-Maynadier Map from 1859-1860 although some think there were more up to dat maps. Many, of not most, of the river courses are made up.
Manning:
October 1875: 7th Cavalry Received 150 recruits. Of these, 60 had
s prior experience in the Army. 63 more arrived on 1 May, 1876. Reno ordered 4 - 6 weeks of drill, centered on company or battalion drill and little if any work in horsemanship or marksmanship.
p.220 in the book, The footnote is reference Reno's testimony from Robert Utley's "The Reno Court of Inquiry.)
Training at Jefferson Barracks, MO was centered on close order drill and fatigue duty. p.121, foot noted to
Forty Miles on Beans and Hay and
Custer, Cavalry, and Crows.
MajorMaror Lewis. Merrill reported, also on page 121, that Recruits are sent with practically no knowledge whatever of their duties, footnoted from
The Old ArmyTerry apparently decided
to use mule trains prior to departing Fort Abraham Lincoln dispatching Reno.
This Apparently there was no training in garrison had not been planned while in garrison and so it was first undertaken at the Powder River Depot (p159) Footnoted to
Centennial Campaign.Fighting Outnumbered and Winning pp127 - 128
On the Bozeman Trail, 30 soldiers/civilians held off 600 attackers for several hours from a rudimentary corral from the Hayfield Fight (1:20)
Battle of Beecher's Island 50 soldiers/civilians held off 600 attackers by digging in in the middle of dried out fork of the Cheyanne River (1:10)
Wagon Box Fight 32 soldiers/civilians held off 500 Indians for 6 hours from the Grinnell Papers (1:15.6)
Herrendeen told Custer where he and 149 other prospectors had fought off 400-500 Indians (p.196) (1:3).footnoted to
Custer in 76.
I believe this demonstrates the reason why the Army thought they could defeat the Sioux, but notice none of these were offensive actions but force with hasty or semi-prepared fortifications to fight from. This is also indicative of the success of the British at Rourke's Drift vs Isandalwana.I have not done an analysis of US Army attacks on Indian bands.When the 7th Left Abraham Lincoln, out of about 660 officers, men, scouts, contracted citizens, 80 troopers were left to walk to the Little Bighorn , p. 135,
Trainingpp. 139-140 Custer apparently ordered Reno to get the regiment in shape for prolonged service in the field. Reno, as I pointed out, appeared not to follow these orders. Before previous campaigns Custer is said to implement a routine of morning and afternoon skirmish drill and target practice and he finished by conducting a 2 week field exercise. Footnoted in general orders in 1874 and 1876.
Reno instituted daily hour long marksmanship on March 6, but on April 3rd cut it back to 30 minutes. So it would appear that Reno did better in marksmanship training than I posited from memory, likely exceeding the 15 rounds/month allotment for monthly target practice. FAL Circular 21 & 45 1876.
When Custer left, the band (17 men) and 150 other soldiers were left behind at the Powder River Depot for lack of horses. About 660 men departed the Camp for the remainder of the campaign. Page 190 footnoted to Gray,
the Centennial Campaign.AmmunitionEach soldier carried 100 rounds of carbine ammunition (66,000 total) and 26,000 more in the trains for a total of 92,000 available rounds. Page 190, footnoted to
The Reno Court Inquiry.Size of enemy force/oddsBefore departing for the mission to find the village, Custer opined to his officers there were about 1500 hostiles in the camp. Of course, they had no information as to the actual enemy stregnth. (page 193)
Custer asked Gerard how many he thought they would face and was told 1500-2000. (p204) footnoted to
The Custer Myth.Donavan says Custer did not tell his officers of the overall plan for a pincer or encirclement of the camp along the LBH, but opines that many/most officers has discerned it from other officers and discussions. (p193)
As they moved out, Custer, as we all know divided his command (pp211-216):
Custer: 220 men for 22,000 rounds of ammunition
Reno: 140 men and 35 scouts, for 175 and about 17599 rounds of ammunition
Benteen: 118 Men Total and 11800 rounds of ammunition
Trains: 130 men, including CO B and civilians, 130,000 rounds of ammunition
26,000 rounds in reserve.
When Reno is ordered to attack the group of 50-75 fleeing Indians (NOT the village which had not been seen close up yet), he crossed the river and as he crossed Ford A, some troops claim they already saw Custer going up the ridge to the right (p.217) Footnoted in
Custer in 76.Reno subsequently orders a charge and when he spots the Indians boiling up from or around a dry creek bed that is 5 feet deep and 10 feet wide, he determines if he continues he will dehorse most of his troops in the creak bed amongst the Indians and so checks the charge and forms a skirmish line. (p229). As a point of reference, modern rectangular anti-tank ditches are 1.8 x 3.3 meters or 5.9 x 10.8 feet, so it would require a tank/mech infantry team about 30 minutes to breach or lay a bridge, not including minefields.
Analysis (not in any particular order)
So, somewhat to my astonishment, Custer apparently did plan a pre-operation training program. Reno tried to, but failed, due to lack of cooperation from the company commanders, plus weather, other preparatory actions needing to be taken and perhaps housekeeping of the fort. It appears there was no mule-pack training conducted causing the regiment to have to figure it out prior to Reno's reconnaissance. This is a serious, but not fatal, failure of leadership to schedule proper training before movement.
The engagements reported above being fought at odds ranging from 1:2 to 1:20 (in favor of the Indians) seems to lend credence to the attitude of the Army that they could take on the Indians at high odds. However, it must be understood the engagements above were
defending with semi-improved positions and Reno and Custer were supposedly "attacking" and they failed to have the odds ratio necessary to win in the attack.
Let us assume that the Indians devote 500 shooters to each US Cavalry attack.
Thus,
Reno (175 troops/scouts) attacking 500 advancing hostiles is a 1:2.85 attack. Usually not successful.
We will call Reno's movement to the timber and his "breakout" to Reno hill a delay. The rule of thumb for delay is 1:6, thus we can believe that Reno could be successful in conducting that operation. He lost about half his men killed, wounded, or mission, so by the time he got to his Hill, he was down to probably less than 87 people and would still have been outnumbered at a 1:5.7 ratio. He was not dug in at that time, but the hostiles broke off to go after Custer.
Skirmish Line and DelayLet's model what happens if Reno stays on the skirmish line. Could he have caused enough casualties to convince the Indians to break off?
For fun, we will give Reno the ph at Rourke's Drift of 1:13 or 0.07 and a Pk of 0.7 which yields a combined Ph/Pk of around 0.049.
The cavalry gets off 6 rounds per minute
We will use the canter at 15 MPH or 1320 feet/minute.
Let us have Reno dismount and form skirmish line 500 feet away from the "ditch". The Indians could close on him in about 20 seconds (If I did my math right). Each trooper would be able to fire 3 times for a total of 525 rounds fired.
With the above Ph/Pk that gives 25 kills, I determine Reno is probably unable to stop the Indian charge and would be destroyed in hand to hand combat.To escape this, Reno has to discern how long it would take him to mount, move to the timber, dismount, deploy, remount, move out, and reach his defensive position. He did this soon enough. When he did his, to be generous, break out, he did not have so much distance to trade for time, so this is where he lost most of his men.
Benteen arrives with his battalion of 118 men and then consolidates with Reno increasing the strength to 193 and a ratio of 1:2.5.
it gets even better, and then When the trains arrive, it grows to something on the order of 323 men and the odds improve to 1:1.5. They get time to dig in, so their combat power could have been further calculated to be about 323*1.5 or 485, or 1:1.03. Even if we increase the enemy on the 2nd day to as much as 750, the odds are still highly favorable to the defense at 1.54. As we all know, Reno/Benteen saved the 7th Cavalry(-) to fight another day.
The Indians - probably - realize they can't dig out the 7th in a frontal attack given the position and amount of ammunition they have available and the best thing to do is keep them pinned down with fire and let thirst take its toll. Reno cannot break out of his current predicament because he would have to leave his wounded behind, but he can work to improve his position.
As Terry closes, the Indians decide they have had enough.
Custer's actionsCuster does a lot of running around and is apparently split into two separate wings. For the sake of argument, we will put C, I, and L together (at about 120 men and E and F at about 80, with some staff and such split between the two of the wings.
Thus, it appears C, L, and I are opposed by about 500 attackers thus battalions odds are 500/120 or 1:4.16 not a good day, particularly if you are not dug in.
I do not think E and F were simultaneously engaged, but we know stragglers got to LSH, so we will say that E and F grow to about 110, but are opposed by 600 (to make up a number) hostiles (because Custer is now getting it from at least two sides while some Indians are going to lunch) , so the odds are 1:5.45. Definitely not a good day, especially considering the the Custer Battalion was not mutually supporting.
SummeryIn my view, the 7th failed to accomplish its mission due to:
Poor command climate, especially in disseminating orders
Lack of training prior to deployment, particularly marksmanship but also in lack of training as to using pack mules.
Lack of horses
Division of forces and attacking outnumbered.
It seems to me, the attack may have succeeded had he attacked up the valley with the whole regiment and broke into the village. Odds at best: 660:1500 or 1:2.2. Probably lower because more people would have defended the village than left it to attack Custer's divided force. I do not think Reno could have beat his way through all the Indians by himself. Perhaps a hammer and anvil with Benteen
attacking up the valley with 5 companies and
Custer/Reno attempting to flank the village with 6 companies.
I think if Custer had taken the whole Regiment up the valley, it would have been a tough fight for him to win if the Rosebud is any example.