Excellent work gentlemen!
Let's shift the emphasis here since it would appear that the evidence does not support the notion that Custer could be "saved' by Reno or Benteen.
How about we go back to the Crow's Nest where Custer's scouts first try to show him the Indians and to estimate their strength.
What could Custer have done from that point that would have yielded a victory (salvation) for him?
Now my interest in this battle has really always been in the end game after Custer moves right.
As a first thought from the Crow's Nest I would have wanted to get some eyes as far forward as possible to try to understand exactly where the Indians were and what was their strength. I do not recall Custer doing this.
Did he?
Is it a dumb idea?
Cheers
Mac,
You keep approaching this like it is a controlled experiment. There is no control. History unfolds exactly as it should. There are no such things as turning points, or if there are, they are only discernable from the long backward view of history.
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All these what if's we like to explore is a fun intellectual trip, but the facts are it really doesn't matter nor does it explain anything. Custer didn't follow his orders. He separated his command in a way that no force could come to another parts aid. .If Custer went to Ford B and was repulsed or if he went to Ford D and was repulsed, the end result is the same. His battalion was caught either strung out in stationary positions without mutual support (and perhaps on indefensible ground" or it was caught on the move and destroyed in detail. Given that Benteen arrived when he did, he would probably not got to Custer in time to do anything and it may not have made any difference.If Custer has the agency to change his decisions, so too did the Indians, Gibbon, Crooke,
and Sheridan.
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First off, I have come to the conclusion the Army did not fully understand their mission. It was to convince the Indians to return to the reservation, give up their traditionally way of life, and trust the US government to actually do what they said they would do. Which they had failed to do ever since the British colonized America. (In Florida, at least, the situation was not quite so contentious, although in other parts of the New World, the Spaniards were a bunch of barbaric Christians. The Indians, if they knew about them before hand, would probably have thought they were safe, given that Spain was NE of them and everyone know the Barbarians always sweep down from the North. Except Hannibal, who somehow managed to sweep down from the North from the South, by going to Spain, then going North of the Alps, before finally sweeping down from the North.)
The US Army, longing for a European style war, elected to pursue it in the wrong fashion. What was the right fashion? I have no clue, but the Kinetic actions clearly failed at first.
What if Reno had only conducted target practice? Perhaps their Ph/Pk would have improved from 0.25/0.25 to 0.45/0.3? Would it have been enough?
What if Sheridan had actually made a plan and sourced Gibbon and Terry with additional troops and horses? Recall many recruits were left behind because they had no horses and the band had to be left behind to mount as many men as possible.
What if Sheridan, instead of sitting in Chicago and going to the Centennial Fair had decided to take command of the Terry/Custer force personally?
What if Crooke/Reynolds had behaved differently at the Powder River? Reynolds somehow threw away a small victory, let the Indians recover their horses, and move toward Crazy Horse. This convinced the
What if Gibbon had attacked the Indians as he moved East? His scouts found them at least twice and there were not as many Indians at that time. He may have had a chance to defeat them. Gibbon broke one of the sacred laws of scouting which is "Once you find the enemy, don't let go." Gibbon was sort of famous for commanding the Iron Brigade? What turned him into a chicken? The odds were closer. His was a relatively small force, but he had a good base of fire with his infantry force and a small mounted force. Since the odds were slightly more even, perhaps he could have nipped the issue in the bud right away. Gibbon apparently never told Terry that he had found them and instead just continued East along the Yellowstone.
What if Crooke, instead of being driven from the field, had used his much more numerous scouts to follow the trail back to the Indian village? He thought he knew where it was during the battle, but was wrong? He could have brought up his trains. Putting hs infantry on mules was genious. What if Terry had done that? Then most of the force could have done whatever?
What if Reno had not disobeyed his orders during his scout? He would not have detected the movement direction of the enemy and reported only that he had a very good idea where the enemy was not. What would Terry have done then? The Indians certainly would have moved off and it is highly likely the US Army would have never found them again.
What if Terry had gone with Custer and sent Gibbon on alone? He would/should have been able to control Custer and ensure his plan was correctly followed. Assuming this or that Custer actually followed his orders, he would have discovered the battlefield on the Rosebud. What would their actions have been? Would they have turned to follow Crooke's trail to the South or the Indian Trail to the North? If they had followed the trail to the North, what would the Indians done? Find and attack Gibbon's force? Continue North, cross the Yellowstone and go further North, maybe even to Canada? OR would they have gone to the source of the LBH and followed it down.
What if Custer had sent Herrendeen down Tullocks Creek? Had he made it, Terry would have known the Creek was clear of the Indians and he would/could have followed his original plan to move to the mouth of the LBH instead of taking a different track, slowing his arrival at the LBH.
Did the Indians know where Terry/Gibbon were? IF they did, would they have attacked or continued to try to evade the US Army?
The Indian's certainly detected Custer in the vicinity of the Crows nest. But what did they do about it? Some of the Indians continued East away from the battle area. Some went toward the village to warn them, but Custer's apparent haste allowed him to get to the village before the Indians could report.
Custer's plan was to move to the crows nest, then use the rest of the day to scout and rest, then close the distance that night, having conducted reconnaissance and formed a plan to attack the village? Had he conducted reconnaissance, would he have decided not to attack?
Had he waited, the Indians would likely have reported his position and movement to the camp. How would they have reacted? Move North and attack Gibbon and Terry. Move West (my choice, toward the Crow thinking Custer and his scouts would rule that out from the start) or South (which they did after the battle.) If they moved, would they have stayed massed or would the bands have broken up and scattered? Would the 7th be able to track them?
Let's say he waited and tried the reconnaissance. The Indians likely now would have been warned. The Indian band was now larger than it was when they defeated Crooke. They could have attacked immediately and caught the 7th napping, since they never seemed to deploy after a days march in a manner which would let them defend the camp. If a smaller force of Indians could defeat Crookes larger force, a larger force could have defeated Custer's force (who had no infantry to serve as a base of fire) why would they not defeat Custer? OF course, Custer may been then been able to withdraw successfully. But the village would no doubt be moving?
Next, let's give him the free pass to close on the village, decide upon a suitable deployment. Using Washita as a guide, he may have tried to envelope the village. But wait? What if he decided the village was too large for his small force to successfully attack? Could he withdraw and break contact, or would this just result in him being caught on the march.
Had he waited, the Indians may have moved the village a short distance and then attacked him before he was set. Any envelopment plan would have resulted in the subordinate units being out of supporting distance.
While Chuck thinks the Indians knew where Custer was, what does this mean? Did they know he was groping his way toward them? If so, then why were they surprised when he attacked on Sunday? Had they anticipated attack they could have brought many of their horses into the village to be ready to mount and respond instantly. What if they had set a large ambush for him in the vicinity of Reno Creek and Ford A?
What if Custer had properly supported Reno? Would that have changed the equation? Perhaps they could have delayed back to Ford A and Benteen would have joined them?
What if Custer had brought the whole Regiment, the 2nd CAV, and the Gatlings to Ford A and prepared a defense, then sent a scouting party to lure the Indians to him?
What if, instead of Gatlings, the 7th had had lighter artillery available. There was some you know, not necessarily at FAL, but it could have been sent.
What if Custer had not sent Benteen off to the left, and Custer then moved up the valley with the whole Regiment? Could it have stood and fought with the skirmish line forming in about the same place or would they have attempted to fight through the Indian covering force and into the village?
What if Custer had decided to attack the pony herd? He didn't need to kill it all, he just needed to stampede it. My gaming showed that there is no telling where the horses would have gone. they would have gone in all directions, some inciting other horses to stampede. Some would have gone toward the village, potentially causing all sorts of mischief.
what if Custer just decided to approach the village, put the Regiment into 2 or 3 lines and just stood there till the sun came up? If Sitting Bull really wanted to talk as is sometimes claimed, would he have gone?
In my view, the only thing Custer could do that had even a small chance of success, would have been to find defensible ground - where I don't know because I can't really find any I like on the map and in my two hour abbreviated reconnaissance, I had no opportunity, nor did I bring the maps I needed, to conduct my own reconnaissance - and let the Indian's come to him while he essentially formed a square to stand them off, preferable with a good water source in the middle of it.
What if the entrenchng tool had been invented prior to the LBH? Would the regiment been able to dig itself in well enough to avoid defeat?
What would the Indians done had Terry/Gibbon had appeared? Go after them? Leave? Did they have enough force to attack both. Could they have finished Custer off, fixed Reno/Benteen, then gone after Terry/Gibbon. Had they attacked Terry/Gibbon would they have been as inept as they appear to have been during the entire campaign?
In these excursions, you can't just assume the Indians just stay put and let Custer do as he will. The Indians were, at least while massed, were complacent and Custer was arrogant.