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Post by quincannon on Mar 29, 2023 23:20:58 GMT
A thread for discussion of World War II in the Pacific
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mac
Brigadier General
Posts: 1,790
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Post by mac on Mar 30, 2023 1:54:40 GMT
In November of 1941 Hitler owned Europe and Japan had been in China for several years. The US had done pretty much nothing to change those conditions. Question If Japan had exploded through Asia, as they did, but had left all US interests assailed, would the US have done anything more than express disapproval?
Cheers
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Post by quincannon on Mar 30, 2023 2:41:42 GMT
Again one must look at the map of the Pacific basin. Anywhere Japan goes south, and south was where the natural resources they need were, must travel east or west of the Philippines. That is like having a tumor in your colon, and expecting to take a normal crap. Japan had to secure the flanks of their sea lifeline to the south. The Philippines were at the time owned by Uncle Sam. Same with Malaya. Resources needed but controlled by someone, Great Britain, you would have to go to war with to seize
War between the US and Britain on one side and Japan on the other was preordained back as far as 1920, and probably before, perhaps as far back as 1905 when Japan kicked the crap out of the Russian Navy
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mac
Brigadier General
Posts: 1,790
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Post by mac on Mar 30, 2023 10:54:19 GMT
Again one must look at the map of the Pacific basin. Anywhere Japan goes south, and south was where the natural resources they need were, must travel east or west of the Philippines. That is like having a tumor in your colon, and expecting to take a normal crap. Japan had to secure the flanks of their sea lifeline to the south. The Philippines were at the time owned by Uncle Sam. Same with Malaya. Resources needed but controlled by someone, Great Britain, you would have to go to war with to seize War between the US and Britain on one side and Japan on the other was preordained back as far as 1920, and probably before, perhaps as far back as 1905 when Japan kicked the crap out of the Russian Navy All agreed but... you knew there would be a but ... and this is a purely fantasy theoretical discussion.. Britain was already fully occupied by Germany and the Japanese Navy and Army, as we saw, were well able to deal with them. For Japan to attack Pearl was like a man punching an elephant in the nose. You do not terminally damage the nose and when his eyes stop watering he will stamp you into the dust. Perhaps they would have been better to not punch the elephant but rather hope he was going to stay as quite as he has been and just tolerate your activities.
So starting at December 7 anyone care for the conspiracy theory that Roosevelt let it happen? Cheers
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Post by yanmacca on Mar 30, 2023 11:13:52 GMT
link I am right in saying that apart from the philippines on the western flank (or hook), the others where all protected by Britian, France and the Dutch?
Ian
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Post by quincannon on Mar 30, 2023 14:05:46 GMT
And Australia Ian. The Solomon Islands were largely the protectorate of Australia.
Roosevelt letting Pearl Harbor happen is right up there with pigs flying. A conspiracy fomented by the isolationist wing of the Republican Party that contains about as much truth as black helicopters over Montana, Saint Helena finding the True Cross or saying that Atila was just having a frat party when he got to Rome.
That said, if you go deeper a case could be made, and a very accurate one, that Roosevelt's decision to move the fleet to Pearl from their home ports of San Diego and San Pedro was one that allowed a Pearl Harbor attack. He was warned a year before the attack by Admiral Richardson that Pearl was not the right move. Roosevelt ignored his fleet commander's advice and relieved him. Had the fleet stayed in California it would have been completely out of reach. Keep in mind the attack that did happen, happened on a shoestring from the Japanese perspective. They did not have enough remaining combat power to launch a third strike, Fuchida notwithstanding, and damned near ran out of oil before the task force could reach home waters.
Pearl happened for one simple reason. We concentrated on finding out what the Japanese WOULD do, rather than concentrating on what the Japanese COULD do. It's a common mistake, one made all the time, and ALWAYS FATAL.
There was absolutely no chance on God's green earth that Roosevelt knew that Pearl Harbor was the Japanese objective and let it happen because he wanted to start a war. Were the signs there? Indeed they were, but nothing pointed to Pearl as the specific target. Also keep in mind Roosevelt loved the Navy, he like his cousin had been Assistant SECNAV, but Franklin was a Hyde Park Roosevelt and the sea was in his blood, unlike the Sagamore Hill Roosevelts who were by and large Army folks. Roosevelt would have rather died a thousand deaths that put his beloved Navy in Japanese bomb sights if he could have avoided it.
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Post by herosrest on Mar 30, 2023 17:23:30 GMT
There is a succinct overview done quite well HERE What is a standard response pre-hostilities, was in place and there is an argument whether the 'sanctions' brought the thing on, or forward; or were prudent in the face of a certainty. This was a game of empires and domination and Japan understood the risk it took. No-one alive in December 1941, understood the potential with naval airpower for what happened. Japan embracing that strategy, changed warfare and did it by extending the reach of airpower as never before. Yamoto sent Nagumo into the unknown and delivered a strategic victory of immese proportions. Suddenly, war at sea had altered as the reach of navies extended beyond the horizon. I've avoided the UK Malaysia situation on purpose because that's the best thing for it. Having bitten the bullet, Japan undertook a brilliantly ruthless campaign which stalled on New Guinea and the Solomon Seas as they consolidated, and invited what followed. I was interested in the US responses, as the Philipines collapsed and surviving forces fell back on Australia with nowhere else to go as reinforcement from West Coast USA began. The point that Japan would not have attacked mainland USA, is interesting and i'm sure it has been fully assessed by historians. I believed they would have hit the US fleet, where ever based. The sanctions on Japan, in effect halted pre-war economic expansion with them mired in China almost to their bottom lip and facing Soviet threat there. Japan's attack on the US, and UK, guaranteed Soviet Russia's survival as their war factories recovered production and the manpower countering the Japanese Army in China, was freed to go west against Hitler. 8th Fighter Group
National Archive
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Post by quincannon on Mar 30, 2023 20:39:27 GMT
I shall rebut after my nap. Early funeral at church I worked today. Every singer in Colorado Springs was there, as was a bell choir. My head is still ringing.
Needless to say there are several points of disagreement.
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Post by quincannon on Mar 31, 2023 0:27:59 GMT
It is absolutely and totally inaccurate to say that Japan was the only ones who recognized the potential of naval air power. What is accurate is that no one in leadership in any navy recognized and understood that potential. The leadership, including the Japanese were stuck on Trafalgar, while the up and comers insisted that if you did not control the sky over the sea, you could not control the sea.
Do not believe for one second that what I said was not the absolute truth, and never ever drink the Yamamoto Kool Aid. Fan fiction for a purpose. We should have let the son of a bitch live. We would have won the war in 44.
Do you know how far it is from Hashirajima to San Diego? Do you also know that the Japanese even at the start of the war were on fuel and ammo rations. Hara Tamichi complains about this as soon as Java Sea in February of 42. If the Japanese ever tried to get at the U S Fleet in San Diego or San Pedro, they would be swimming at least one third of the way. More Yamamoto Kool Aid.
The bells are still ringing in my head, but it gives me satisfaction to now ring your bell.
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mac
Brigadier General
Posts: 1,790
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Post by mac on Mar 31, 2023 10:55:46 GMT
I have seen how this started now QC so let us look at New Guinea. This was a battle that was, and to a degree still is, ignored in Australia. The reason for that is that the performance of people like MacArthur and Blamey was so bad, that the press reports were censored and the field commanders and soldiers were ignored and brutally criticized. Shameful politics!
I have walked the Kokoda Track as a young man. It is incredibly rugged terrain covered in dense vegetation. During my time it was the wet season; hot, humid, and started to rain in torrents, every single day, at precisely 4 pm. You could set your watch by it. The long uphill slogs are exhausting. The downhills so steep you feel you may fall at any moment. Literally after the first couple of downhills I had friction blisters on the TOP of my feet.
Dense jungle with no visibility the whole way. At Isurava the ridge is densely covered in Kunai grass. I am 6 feet tall and I could not see over it or through it.
The truth is that by the time the Japanese reached Ioribaiwa they could see Port Moresby but they were a completely spent force. The reason was the time it had taken them to get there. Time in which the heavily outnumbered Australian forces had bleed them with slow defensive retreats. This against the wishes of MacArthur and Blamey.
The truth is neither MacArthur nor Blamey had the slightest idea of the realities of the battle space.
The best way to understand this is to watch this old documentary which manages to do a really good job of explaining pretty much the whole story. Especially moving are the stories told by some of the men who fought there. Turning on sub titles will be helpful.
Cheers
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Post by herosrest on Mar 31, 2023 13:44:18 GMT
mac. Nice find.... I shall enjoy it later today. What you said is a big tick. Overland happened because the Allies wrested local air superiority over the seas. April, Japan raided the Indian Ocean. May, Coral Sea. June, Midway.
Did you take time at Lae?
QC, it was the instigation of carrier battle groups, six ships at PH, four on three at Midway, which was the transformation.
Had their strike to be made on US mainland facilities - it would have been done. There's always a way and 'X' is always acheivable as a one off. The alternative was meet the US naval sally onto the IJN in the Philipines and I see no way US losses would have been lesser than the blow against PH. Attrition reduced the IJN from defacto dominant naval capability during earliy 1942. A picture book lesson of readiness and preparedness.
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Post by quincannon on Mar 31, 2023 14:52:08 GMT
Oh, I do agree about the large carrier battle groups. Completely agree, and their coordination between those carriers in forming strike packages was superior to anything the USN was doing until mid 1943. Best thing we could manage was two, and I recall three together for a very short time (a few days), I think twice, during the Guadalcanal campaign.
Actually Midway was four on two and one. Task Forces 16 and 17. Probably what saved us, because Enterprise and Hornet operating at a bit of a distance from Yorktown caused the Japanese to be confused and as a result attacked Yorktown repeatedly, and then thinking the had damaged (or sunk) more than one or perhaps all of the American carriers, depending upon what apologist for Nagumo you are listening to.
It is my impression Mac that all that was really necessary in New Guinea was holding Port Morsby, the rest of the campaign tied down too much allied combat power for no really justifiable reason. That's my take, and I am sure there are both Americans and Australians that would disagree with that. There are two mortal military sins in my estimation. The first is losing even one soldier you do not have to, and the second is sitting on your ass in some unnecessary side show when there is real fighting to be done. The only benefit my research on New Guinea provided me was that the 32nd Infantry Division went into the campaign as an ill trained mob with poor leadership, and came out a top notch division, probably one of the top four in the Pacific, and that four include the 1st Marine Division, the best USMC division ever.
HR: My unalterable position concerning the Pacific War, was that there was Guadalcanal, followed by the sweeping up the bar room floor of battle. Guadalcanal broke the back of the Japanese. Guadalcanal, not Midway, was the turning point.
As you probably know Mike is a wargamer. It would be quite interesting to test your theory of a Japanese carrier attack on the Pacific Fleet while in home port/waters. The parameters would be exactly the same as the Pearl raid, just the distances covered and the actual objective locations changed. He may have some thoughts on the subject.
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Post by herosrest on Mar 31, 2023 16:30:43 GMT
I don't mind chatting it through. The gamble is achieving surprise, as happened at PH. With that, it's the same home run and bonus that nothing of the US fleet is leaving home waters.
Where to next? Panama.
PH was a shock. It could have been worse.
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Post by quincannon on Mar 31, 2023 16:54:05 GMT
I agree that surprise is the key to winning any battle. More often than not the side that achieves surprise wins.
I have already addressed why I think that a raid at our naval bases on the west coast was an impossibility logistically from the Japanese perspective so I will not belabor the point. Where I think you are again missing the boat (pun greatly intended) is that two to three hundred miles off the U S west coast contain some of the busiest sea lanes in the world. They were then and they are now. How are you going to achieve that surprise if your raid parameters force you to transit that area? San Diego to Seattle, you cannot help but see ships of all kinds in those waters, from fishing boats to freighters. You must enter the 300 mile line, because your aircraft do not have the range for you to do otherwise, with full bomb and torpedo loads. The fighters could conduct the raid outside the 300 mile mark, but fighters themselves would be like attacking a bull elephant with a pea shooter. So I throw the ball back to you. Tell me how it can be done. If you came up with some viable plan I will turn over my King and concede. Detailed plan mind you, no pie in the sky wishing and dreaming.
I think the same could be said about an attack on the Panama Canal. Despite all the rhetorical defense attention given the canal in the 1920's and 30's it was still a much softer target than Hawaii, which in 41 was still soft as mush on a hot day. You must still solve the logistical and surprise issues.
YES INDEED, it could have been much worse. The Japanese could have attacked the Philippines. The U S Fleet would have sortied from Hawaii and the Japanese Navy met them in the Philippine Sea and sunk every goddamned ship we had sent. Pearl was a blessing.
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Post by herosrest on Mar 31, 2023 17:31:29 GMT
The premise I followed, within broader topic, was your fleet on the West Coast, rather than PH. Ultimtely, the PH strike was down to plain simple good fortune, since it WAS detected and could have run into far stiffer opposition. Those same caveats exist for a strike on the US. You would expect it to be detected, however in the real game that counted for zilch. 20 1852's for 24 hours, 480 nautical miles. Yes, it would be difficult to remain undetected - i'll pop it in back of mind. As given, it was done. The fleet concentration on PH, protected PH. It worked. Had the fleet operated from west coast then flip a coin, PH or Philipines first. I'm not a Japanese Naval planner but take PH and claim the Philipines at your leisure if the US fleet is stymied on the West Coast. As you gave, it was about resources and throwing the assault force used in the Philipines against PH instead would have taken it. I'm not on solid ground here because PH was a major military resource. If your fleet was kept safe on the West Coast in prerence then PH would not have been as strong as it was. Nagumo was sent into the unknown and achieved surprise. It could be done. It is done all the time. Boo............. Regards. Added IJN had something of a loose cannon rolling around with the 22nd Air Flotilla. It's sort of mentioned HERE and the thought crossed my mind in distant past that it was perfect sitting at PH. I haven't seen that idea developed anywhere. That airgroup wrought havoc through the Philipines on down to New Guinea and were blunted over Guadalcanal. After which the Jap Army airforce deployed out of China to pick up the slack and were demolished by 5th AF. Japan had options and yes, they were short of resources. Look what they did.
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