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Post by quincannon on Aug 28, 2021 16:19:29 GMT
Having never been there I can not comment on which option would have been a better choice as a central point for evacuation, but I sure as hell know someone who knows both places very well, and I will solicit his opinion. My gut tells me retaining and using both would be out of the question, as you have just doubled your security requirements if you tried that.
There will be plenty of time for shoulda, woulda, coulda. This is not that time. We must concentrate on getting one job done in the best way possible, possible being the operative word. We can wish in one hand, and crap in the other, and it really does not matter what we wish for, because at the end of the day we still have one hand full of crap that we have to clean up.
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Post by deadwoodgultch on Aug 28, 2021 21:51:05 GMT
A USMC officer with some backbone: www.politico.com/news/2021/08/27/marine-us-fatalities-afghanistan-506999Called out the chain of command in a video and was relieved for it, story mentions evacuating Bagram Air Base. While I haven't written anyone about it yet, I was getting ready to. Bagram is 41 miles or so from Kabul. Not much in between. Maybe it would have been better, but a lot of people may have had a hard time getting out of Kabul, much less to Bagram. I don't know. Another Link: www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/afghanistan-debacle-fuels-general-officer-crisiOn July 17th I brought up Barham pull out overnight, without warning as I was informed that that was the beginning of the fall of the house of cards. I posted it on "It is what it ". No one seemed to give a damn. Two means of egress would have been better than one and an USAF presence would have made a difference.
Chuck mentions he has source, as do I, in fact I have two, both O-6 one Navy (intelligence type) attached to the Pentagon, the other Army (Spec Ops type) was attached to the Pentagon prior to retirement in 07. Army dude dates back to Vietnam, Desert Storm, Iraq Freedom, was at the Pentagon on 9/11. These two prompted my Bagram concerns in July, and fears for extraction.
Chucks source may be closer to him, maybe even family, mine have been friends for years.
Mike I sincerely hope all get out safely.
Regards, Tom
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Post by quincannon on Aug 29, 2021 0:18:51 GMT
Mine was in Afghanistan as recently as April of this year. He knows Bagram very well having been the deputy commander there. He also knows the airport. We had a little over two thousand troops in country when this evacuation started. You can only spread butter so thin.
An ideal situation would have been to have several places, not just these two, but where are you going to get the resources to secure and operate them, when the in country troop levels were so low, and they were at that level before the change in administrations. So if you want to operate two, three, four or more locations as centers for evacuation you must commit, I would say conservatively, five thousand troops ( a reinforced brigade, plus airfield operators) for each point of departure. That is not likely to have ever been in the cards. The civilian airport was probably the best place, in terms a facilities, and Bagram, or some other location better for security. No one place meets all requirements. It is also well to remember that we do have allies to consider, and they have a say in choices made, and to be made.
All of your sources Tom, like you and I, are has beens. It is a different era today than it was as few as five or ten years ago. Now let's quit bitching, let's stop the Chicken Little like - sky is falling -, stop second guessing the people that have to carry the ball, let them carry it and see if they score a touchdown, a field goal, or fall short, unable to penetrate the 20 yard line.
There was a time when foreign policy arguments stopped at the water's edge. Beyond our shores we were all Americans. May I suggest that Chicken Little stuff a rag in his beak, and see how this thing plays. When it is over you can raise all the stink you wish, and people will either agree with you, or think you a fool.
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Post by deadwoodgultch on Aug 29, 2021 10:29:07 GMT
The Naval Officer was at the Pentagon in June of this year, not a has been, shy of 55.
Regards, Tom
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Post by yanmacca on Aug 29, 2021 11:24:08 GMT
The only sauce I have is Worcestershire, "but hell" I don't need one because I listen to the BBC, they have reporters everywhere all with good connections.
Also timewise I am ahead of you guys, when I put on the morning news, you are all in bed.
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Post by quincannon on Aug 29, 2021 14:16:36 GMT
That's why I listen to the BBC Ian. They are the best news organization on the planet.
My source is at the Pentagon today Tom. The difference here is that you seem to take the opinions of your source and make them your own, while I take the opinions of my source, evaluate them, and decide what I think the best course of action is for myself. I believe firmly that military operations, all of them are the art of the possible. Possible within the resources one has at hand, not what they wish they had. I judge success or failure on that standard alone. If at the end of the day I believe that what was done was all that reasonably could be done, then I believe the verdict of history is sufficient to decide if I was right or wrong.
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Post by yanmacca on Aug 29, 2021 14:39:05 GMT
More US airstrikes today in Afghanistan, probably against ISIS-K targets, maybe a suicide bomber. The Taliban will also root out this group, they are certainly not friends with each other.
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Post by quincannon on Aug 29, 2021 15:42:01 GMT
I think that is the point Ian. ISIS-K is a Taliban problem, and it is best left for them to deal with their problems. It would not surprise me to learn, that it is the Taliban who are fingering these ISIS-K people. It is both in our interest, and those of the Taliban to eliminate these people. We would do the same thing if troublemakers moved into our neighborhood and started giving the neighborhood problems. The objectives of the Taliban are different then what they were thirty years ago. They are still not Jeffersonian democrats by any stretch of the imagination, and probably just as brutal as ever, but they now have a country to run. Anything, or anyone that tries to interfere with that objective, is likely not to be at the top of their Christmas card list.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend, at least temporarily, until our objectives and interests once more diverge. No one ever made peace with their friends. They make peace, or what may temporarily pass for peace, with their enemies. There is a very narrow sliver of interest here where our objectives and those of the Taliban are sympathetic with one another. Smart people on both sides take advantage of the opportunities they are offered, or that come their way.
The Taliban is not without their problems either. Imagine a bunch of country bumpkin thugs coming to Widnes and taking over the city. Being bumpkins they do not know how to run a city, but the people in the city do know. On top of that the bumpkins and the city itself are dead broke, not a farthing to call their own, and the guys who just left town, have all the money, and other resources necessary to run the city. If you were a bumpkin, you are going to rapidly realize that you know nothing about running a city, but those there do, and those there also have contacts on the western horizon with the grease that makes the wheels turn. What do you think the bumpkin is going to be forced to do out of necessity? They just may look at the carrot, and decide if they want to survive they had better take a bite of that carrot, rather then point their guns at it.
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Post by deadwoodgultch on Aug 29, 2021 15:42:15 GMT
Your source served both administrations as did mine, and I am sure that you and he both know the original pull out date was May and I am sure you know why. For the Taliban fighting/battle time is Summer, not Winter, then someone wanted a political ploy or photo opp and chose 9/11 until wiser minds moved it. The original operation was again to begin in winter and not run two to three weeks.
No Chicken Little here, events will play out as planned, or not.
My biggest concern is for our future with people like Woken(The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs), Blinken(Secretary of State), and Nod(Commander in Chief) in charge. Now we have both used uncalled for analogies.
I am not raising a stink, just pointing out the error of your ways,and possibly others, if that makes me a fool, than so be it.
Your serve, sweetness.
Regards, The Fool
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Post by quincannon on Aug 29, 2021 16:05:57 GMT
Others will decide if you are a fool, or have the wisdom of Job.
Well if the original operation was to begin in winter, why did it not begin in winter? The present administration was not in power when winter started. Had it started then, we might not be having either this situation or this discussion. It didn't.
My source has served in four administrations.
If your biggest concern is for the future you will have the opportunity to put your displeasure into action the first Tuesday in November 2024. Until then, those people you cast aspersions at are in charge, and that is the way the Constitution mandates it.
I don't play tennis, and I do not second guess those people who at any level who are running an operation that involves the lives of United States soldiers, and civilians of several nations, when I am not privy to the facts pertaining to those operations, or the difficulties they encounter in the execution of those operations. The after action evaluations will do that in due course.
The bottom line in all this, is what would you do differently today, not yesterday, given the situation that is, not what you might want it to be? That answer is quite simple. You don't know, because you do not have the knowledge required to make those decisions. Neither do I, so I must trust the people who do have that knowledge, and are making those decisions. The passage of time will decide if they were right or wrong, not you, not me, nor anyone else who sits in an armchair viewing these things from afar.
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Post by yanmacca on Aug 29, 2021 19:03:18 GMT
No fools on this board guys, it would however be a boring place if we all agreed on everything so lets have heathy debate.
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Post by yanmacca on Aug 29, 2021 19:08:35 GMT
That's why I listen to the BBC Ian. They are the best news organization on the planet. They do have an advantage over others because of our commonwealth, they have a reporter in every country plus reporters in all the major nations on the planet, they also have regional reporters in the far east and middle east.
A lot of people all over the world, listen to the BBC world service.
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Post by quincannon on Aug 29, 2021 20:35:54 GMT
I have listened to and watched them for years Ian. Once upon a time I even had some recordings of their broadcast of significant events from World War II. I no longer have it. It was one of those old tape things that finally became worn out. What impressed me the most were the recordings of the news during the Battle of Britain. Calm amid destruction. Amazing stuff.
For the record I did not call Tom or anyone else a fool. Both times I used the word fool, it was in the context of he would be judged wise or a fool, dependent upon how right or wrong he was. He is the one who labeled himself a fool, by his last salutation. Not I. He should learn to read and comprehend I would think.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2021 0:02:51 GMT
Chuck,
Unknown by me at present (and I am unwilling to make them assumptions). 1. I do not think there was a concentrated move for evacuation after Trump set the date. 2. Have the Taliban increased measures on their side to stop suicide bombers and suppress ISIS-K. 3. I do not know if the US abandoned any equipment in place that is militarily useful to the Taliban or anyone else in Afghanistan. 4. I do not know, but I hope the Military did not drag their feet in planning the withdrawal, but I am fairly certain there was a lot of argument to stay. 5. We don't know how many people may be left behind or how many intend to stay. 6. We don't know how we are going to get the stay behinds out if the Taliban don't let them leave. 7. Will the Taliban protect American Citizens, Green Card Holders, or Afghans with approved travel documents to the US.
Assumptions. 1. Trump really intended to be out by the 3nd of May. But I have seen there was some accounts whereby he did not really intend to do it. 2. I believe some accounts say the Military continued to try to talk both Trump/Biden out of pulling out. This may be an unknown, but I think I saw accounts of this as well. 3. The 82nd CG is alleged to have told a British Commander to stop going into Kabul to rescue people because it made him/US look bad. 4. The NATO Security council did not vote and apparently was not consulted about withdrawing. As I understand things, there are decisions that have to be voted on and some require a unaminous vote. I don't know if this is one of those things. 5. The current Taliban leadership will follow through with their kinder and gentler image. 6. Logistics and the rear guard size dictated that Kabul Airport was the better place to evacuate from. 7. A 2000 man rear guard was thought to be sufficient to conduct the evacuation and protect the airport. 8. POTUS, STATE, and DOD all felt the Afghan force could hold for at least 90 days and perhaps as long as a year.
Here are some things I believe to be facts:
1. Trump set a date in May to be out. 2. Some people agencies started evacuating people after Trump announced his decision. The only person I know of that did it was Mark Hoyt, but I am sure there was others.. 3. Biden affirmed Trump's decision, but extended the deadline to 11 SEP, and then advanced it to 31 August. 4. We had to reinforce the 2000 man rear guard with 4000 or more troops and troop evacuations seemed to have started last week as well. 6. Private citizens (veterans) and some active duty veterans launched the "Pineapple Express" to try and get people out. 7. The President said he wouldn't leave until he got everyone out that wanted out, then changed his mind. 8. Evacuation numbers have fallen since the suicide bomb attacks at the airport. 9. The Taliban claim they will go after ISIS-K. 10. The Afghan Army abandoned equipment which the Taliban took over. 11. The Taliban say anyone that wants to can leave. 12. We gave lists of people to the Taliban that wanted to leave. One might think this sets them up to be targets (if the Taliban are not the Kinder and Gentler bunch they claim to have become.) 13. Given the size of the rear guard, we had to decide where to leave from and we chose to abandon Bagram Air Base. 14. The Afghan government, Army, and other security forces folded faster than teenagers rushing the Beatles stage.
CONCLUSION: I am unable to draw a conclusion as to whether or not we properly planned and executed the evacuation mission. My gut feel is we did not adequately plan nor successfully executed the plan, because (1) the Afghans folded and (2) we had to send 4000 more troops to Afghanistan.
RECCOMENDATION: There must be a public investigation of this operation after it is completed and if people drug their feet, lied, failed to plan, etc., they should be appropriately disciplined.
COMMENT: The other day you said citizens should pay close attention to the budget and other decisions of government and engage with them through voting, letters, visits, etc. to at least inform them of our thoughts on the issues. This is not second guessing. This is reasoned analysis on my part based on what I know and what I can assume. Obviously it is not conclusive or definitive. Clearly there is much I do not know. The boys on the ground are doing their job. I am surprised the Taliban are not going for our hamstrings as we attempt to leave, although other people are doing it. I am tired of seeing General's and senior administration officials making shitty plans about how to do things and not being called to account for them, while field and company grade officers get relieved for various causes due to a no tolerance for mistakes by people in charge. I don't know any generals who are in charge, I don't have any sources, I don't know any politicians, but I can damn well question anything I feel like. Even if I did have those sources, they probably would not be able to tell me anything. In my view, some General, specifically the CJCS, DSCOPS, or CENTCOM commander, should have thrown his/their stars on the President's desk if he disagreed with his decisions, after first ordering the appropriate people to start the process.
I have yet to decide if or what I am going to write my representatives about, but I am, as you can see, marshalling my thoughts.
Your value may vary.
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Post by quincannon on Aug 30, 2021 1:51:05 GMT
It is my belief that Trump wanted to get out. He did set 1 May 2021 as his deadline, but I believe after losing the election he lost all interest, and had a lot of other things on his mind. As a matter of fact, after Trump returned from Walter Reed having contracted Covid, I seemed to detect a noticeable change in the man, the exact nature of which I cannot put my finger on. He was not worse, nor better, just different.
I think you are also correct, in saying that a two thousand man residual force was thought to be sufficient. In fact my source confirms that. We wanted no more there than absolutely necessary, and it is easy to determine why. The more soldiers, the harder it is in terms of requirements to get them out, safely.
I have no idea about the amount of equipment left behind, although it is probably substantial. When I say no idea, the meaning is was it abandoned? Was it not worth moving? Was it transferred to the Afghan forces? Just don't know. My wallet says I probably don't want to know either.
Should there be a public investigation. NO. Should there be a highly classified investigation, conducted by a civilian board of very highly thought of people from America at large. YOU BET YOUR SWEET ASS THERE SHOULD. If people did any or all of the things you list they should be gotten rid of with dispatch.
My thinking here is that we knew the curtain on this play was closing. What the administration did not realize and the generals did not tell them was the curtain was not closing, the goddamned curtain was falling onto the stage. They, I believe, in not keeping the new administration properly informed, did not want to admit that in twenty years of effort they had failed to make this sows ear into a silk purse. The same goes for the appropriate desks at State and CIA, Agriculture, and several more agencies who had a stake in a good outcome, and egg on their faces with a bad one. Administrations are only as good as the information they have, and information is subject to very close hold protections, when that information makes the informant look like a bumbling idiot.
Citizens should pay very close attention to what is going on in government ALL THE TIME. That is the heart of Jeffersonian philosophy and democracy. Close attention does not mean listening to cable news networks of any stripe. They are entertainers of various sorts, Half of them do not believe what they are saying. A few change their story or perspective on a nightly basis. They are taken by the bumpkins and clodhoppers as being an informed source of news, when what they really are is a bunch of pimps for Fungi Nail, and the latest most sexy brand of bowel cleanser.
Citizenship means getting down in the dirt of facts, wallowing in them, until you determine what is true, and what is bull shit for yourself. The second part is letting the people that represent you know what you think and why. If they are not doing their job, call them to task for it, and finally vote. Voting is how things get done. The results of elections matter. They have consequences.
If a serving officer disagrees with the orders of the Commander in Chief, he has but two options, obey, or as you say place his stars on the CinC's desk, and telling him that he is in such a state of disagreement with him that he cannot adequately carry out his orders. It is then his duty to go off gently into that good night while keeping his mouth shut about what happened. He is still an American, and the Commander in Chief is still the Commander in Chief, and as long as that person is within the lawful limits of his office he should be if not supported, not impeded. If that person holding our highest office is outside his lawful authority though, the person resigning should scream his objections to the high heavens and beyond. A lawless president, is a danger to democracy itself, and as such a bigger threat to this country than anything from the outside.
What should you write? Write what you deeply feel, and have the facts on your side to support. Other than that it is up to you. I do it all the time. When I have a problem here with local government, I seek out my local representative, by calling downstairs and saying Joan, get your sorry ass up here, there are roads on the next street over that needs fixing, and the goddamned trash man did not come till Friday again, and he is due on Thursday. What are you going to do about it. She usually calls back upstairs and says -- screw you. I tell you this because do not be surprised if your letters are ignored. Just don't vote for the bastard that ignored you next time.
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