Decision Point 3: Attack Immediately or Attack the Next Day

[Deleted]

Decision Point	Who	Timeline	Location	Local Time	Clock Time	Event
3	Custer	E	Halt 2 DD: -107.15 45.450 MGRS:  13TCL31693524	0945	1040	Officer's Call ends; Custer has decided to attck the village immediately, though he is still uncertain of its precise location and size.

When the Scout's report was delivered to Custer, he apparently decided to attack but the timing was not yet set.  He had either told the Regiment to move out at a certain time or to be ready to move by a certain time.   At any rate, the Regiment moved up to the vicinity of the Crows nest and into a hide position.  The Scouts told Custer he had been detected, which he doubted, but Tom Custer reported to him they had been discovered.  Custer did not "know," the way we would today from aerial reconnaissance and/or good maps, the location of the camp nor a size beyond largest the Scouts had ever seen.  As it turned out the Indians were surprised by both Reno's attack and by the approach of Custer's Troops.

However, had Custer not turned down Davis Creek, he would not be nearly in contact with the enemy and would not be making this decision.

***Course of Action 1***	Course of Action 2
Attack Immediately	Attack Tomorrow at Daybreak
Advantages	Advantages
We might surprise the enemy even though they have detected us, because we might be able to move faster than they can act on the news of our approach.	Troops can rest before the attack
Approach march will be faster and easier then at night.	Can conduct additional reconnaissance during the day and while approaching, getting a good location on the village
Faster and easier to move in daylight	Moving at night may conceal our approach.
	Terry may be in position along the LBH to contain Northern flight of Indians.
Disadvantages
Do not really know where the village is located or its strength.	Disadvantages
No time for additional reconnaissance.	The Regiment has moved up.  The Enemy may discover us in our hide position and attack us.
If we have not been detected, we risk detection after we move over the divide	Village may move, scatter, or both during the day.
Troops and horses are still tired.	Movement is more difficult and slower at night; may not be able to hit them at daybreak.
If we don't move immediately, the village may move, scatter, or both.	Need time to find attack positions.
Since I didn't scout Tulloch's Creek, Terry has no idea of my position or if the creek approach is clear of Indians.	No assurance Terry is close enough to support us or block Northern Indian movement.
Terry will not be in position vicinity the Big Horn/Little Bighorn Junction	May not have the strength to surround the village.
	Terry has no idea of my situation, or intent.  He does not know if Tullock's Creek is clear

Comparison of COAs. 

--I still have a clear understanding of enemy strength or location. 

--Terry has no idea of my location, my intent, or if Tullock's Creek is clear.

--I do not know his location
.

--I think the enemy knows where I am, therefore time is of the essence. If I go now, in spite of my commands condition, I may be able to surprise the enemy. 

--Since I have been detected, I am now "nearly in contact with the enemy" so I am released from my orders.

--If I wait, I may be inviting attack by the enemy. 

--It will take longer to move into position at night. 

--I may not have the strength to surround the village.  Don't want to repeat mistakes at Washita.

--Even by waiting a day, I won't know if Terry is in position. 

--The longer we wait, the more likely it is the village will move or Scatter.

--For whatever reason, the Regiment moved up from our position last night.

Recommendation:

Attack Immediately.

As before, propose additional advantages/disadvantages, vote, and state your decision.  You may propose an alternative course of action as well.

Forgot to attach the map showing the location.

Attachments:

[benteen]

I would like to address the belief that is held by many if not most of the forum members, which is that Custer attacked on the 25th because he thought he was or could be discovered by the Indians. I disagree with that, and my opinion, and that is what it is, an opinion, based on some facts, but also what makes sense to me.

Custer was not on some special ops mission that required some stealth. He was leading a force of about 750 men and 1000 animals boldly thru the heart of Indian territory. There is no way he could do that without being discovered, and Custer had to know that. In fact I believe these warriors knew where Custer was the minute he left the PRD and kept an eye on him for his entire march including where he halted a few miles from their village.

As I stated before, the idea that Custer attacked when he did  with tired men and horses because he thought he was or could be discovered in my opinion is bogus. He was well aware they knew where he was. They may not have known exactly what he planned to do, but they knew where he was.

Be Well
Dan

[quincannon]

Patience is its own reward.

Stay put. Hide the best you can. Use your best counter-reconnaissance techniques. Make sure your hide is defensible. Start breaking down those goddamned trains into manageable one or two mule per troop company trains, ammo, medical supplies, and water only. You can eat when the dance is over and the fiddler is paid

If the enemy attacks you, make him pay big time. Then counterattack with all you have and chase the decimated (by your fire) bastards to the North Pole if need be.

The damned village is not going to scatter.

If things work out and you are not attacked, hit the sons of bitches at 0900 on 26 June, after the poor slobs have had breakfast, felt good that they dodged a dawn attack bullet, and are just about to go in the woods to take a crap. There are more ways to achieve surprise than a dawn attack. Don't try and surround the village. Hit them in the gut with a clenched fist.

Dan: You asked about doctrine. This question well covered by doctrine. It's so simple you don't have to even think about it hard. The hide position Custer chooses is an ATTACK POSITION, the last place you halt and make sure everything is OK before you cross the Line of Departure in your attack. You expect you might be attacked there as you are close to the enemy, and prepare for it. It IS NOT an ASSEMBLY AREA. In this scenario Busby would have been the assembly area. Now think back to your own experience. The only thing here different from that experience is that the distances involved are greater, and that is due to the greater mobility on both sides factor.

In an attack position, sometimes you halt for a bit. At other times you pass right on through. As with everything the decision to halt or pass through depends upon the situation (DUTS)

[quincannon]

Damn it Dan vote. The Lieutenant Colonel, who does not like to be reminded of his misdeeds needs it up above at the top of the page. Just click course of action 1 or 2.

[Deleted]

I have a multitude of misdeeds and I am sure I don't know about them all.

In other news, he would like to surprise the enemy.  He can do that by (1) not being detected and (2) attacking earlier (or later) than expected.

Even if he was detected, those detecting him didn't tell anyone.  If he was detected and they knew, they may well have gone after him just as they did Crook, only 8 days before.  Plenty of time for them to recover from that action.

[quincannon]

Boy, it's a damned good thing the opera stunk today. I might have missed something I like by thinking and being on this computer all day.

[benteen]

Jan 30, 2021 22:42:17 GMT quincannon said:

Damn it Dan vote. The Lieutenant Colonel, who does not like to be reminded of his misdeeds needs it up above at the top of the page. Just click course of action 1 or 2.

LOL..OK OK.. Given the choice of these two COAs, I will take door #2

Be Well
Dan

[yanmacca]

I have a feeling that Custer wanted to use the same tactics which he used Washita, he wanted to attack at dawn from a number of positions.

To achieve this he needed the element of surprise, and he thought that he had lost this on the 24th and decided to go in as early as he could.

It was a comprise, in a way, and maybe in his mind it was the only real option left.

I still feel that on the 25th with the chance of a dawn attack gone, he thought he had enough strength to do the job, even with only around 350 men (with a detached Benteen and B company, he thought he could complete what he planned to do.

[mac]

Interesting decision point.

My vote will be my response and I am more conservative than Custer.

What does he know

there are a lot of Indians probably in one large bunch if you believe the Crow, but Custer has not seen it and may be skeptical. I probably would believe the Crow or want to take the time to know for sure.

his men and animals have been pushed hard and are not in optimal condition.

I am not afraid of being attacked if I wait as I will certainly be ready for that possibility.

Like I said I am not Custer. My vote is to wait but I understand why Custer being Custer voted for option 1.

Cheers