Decision Point 2: Send the Scouts to the Crows Nest

[Deleted]

Decision Point	Who	Timeline	Location	Local Time	Clock Time	Event
2	Custer	B	Busby Bend Busby Bend (DD: -106.965 45.541 MGRS: 13TCL46594490	2028	2125	Godfrey and Hare settle in when Custer calls his officers together and informs them of his intention to move at 2300. The meeting was short and sweet.

Custer halted in the vicinity of the Busby Bend for the night, short of the Rosebud-Davis Creek intersection.  The scouts have informed him they could reach the Crows nest by morning, confirming the trail and possibly detecting the village location since they appear to be gaining on the Indians.  There are at least three possible courses of action.

COA 1	***COA 2***	COA 3
Send only the Scouts to the Crows Nest	Send Scouts to Crow's Nest and follow with the Regiment	Continue Down the Rosebud
Advantages	Advantages	Advantages
Can confirm the current location of the Indian Camp.	Can confirm the current location of the Indian Camp.	Follows Terry's orders and intent.
Does not commit me to following the trail.	Object of Reconnaissance is to gain and maintain contact with the enemy	Troops and horses can rest.
Object of Reconnaissance is to gain and maintain contact with the enemy.	Places the Regiment in a better position to attack	Can divert to follow enemy trail in morning
What's not forbidden (Not sending scouts) is permitted.		Very small chance of Regiment's detection
Troops and Horses Can rest	Disadvantages
Can divert to follow enemy trail in the morning	Disobeys orders and intent	Disadvantages
Little chance the Regiment will be detected	Long March will tire troops and horses	Enemy Camp may move in a manner that avoids detection.
	Increases chances of detection	May cost me the opportunity to attack in favorable conditions.
Disadvantages	Have pushed the scouts hard today.
Have pushed the scouts hard today	Movement at night is difficult and slow
If the situation is unchanged, may delay my ability to attack	May commit me to attacking early

EDIT (281449EST):  Notably, as Quincannon stated below and I left out, had Custer continued down the Rosebud, he more than likely would have discovered the Battle of the Rosebud sight.  This may have altered Custer's thinking, but of course has no role in making his decision, thus it was not included as in any COA proposed because there definitely would have been no knowledge of the battle prior to finding it.  

Comparison of Courses of Action

--Sending Scouts to the Crows nests follows principles of reconnaissance which is to gain and maintain contact with the enemy and will confirm the direction the enemy has taken before we continue to the south, has a very small chance of detection, allows the troops to rest, and increases my flexibility as I can always follow the trail when we reach Davis Creek in the morning. 

--My orders do not prohibit me from sending Scouts to the Crows Nest to confirm the enemy direction of movement. Much has changed since Reno's Scout. 

--Following the scouts with the regiment forces me to do a long and difficult night march and will tire the troops and horses. My chance of detection is increased and I may be committed to the attack before I am ready and without any support from Terry. 

--COA 1 and 3 allow me to turn to follow the trail at Davis Creek. 

--COA 1 and 2 allow me to confirm the direction of the trail and possibly detect the village earlier than expected. 

--COA 2 increases my chance of detection and may commit me to an early attack. 

--COA 3 while following orders, increases the chance the enemy camp will move and be harder to find and ensures I am unable to attack at a time and place of my choosing. 

--COA 2 and 3 ensure the troops and horses get sufficient rest for what can be a long campaign. 

Recommendation:
COA 1 Send only the Scouts to the Crows Nest
.

To me, this appears to give Custer the most flexibility while still enabling him the flexibility to attack early if necessary.  Since my information is much better, I may be prejudiced to this COA, but I actually gave it thought over three days, so I hope I have minimized that possibility.  Nonetheless, it was open to him and he may or may not have considered it.  He may have also committed himself to attacking, but as we see from his later conduct, he appeared to want to hide the Regiment in order to conduct reconnaissance attack the morning of the 26th.

Please consider the COAs, propose additional advantages/disadvantages and vote, explaining your decision i desired.

Attachments:

[quincannon]

A couple of more things to consider before I make my decision

Crook fought his battle on the 17th of June, on the Rosebud, not all that far from Busby. Custer does not know this, but by following the Rosebud, not with the regiment, but rather a small patrol from one of his line companies, he could fulfill the spirit and letter of Terry's order without adding a day or two of travel time, if the Rosebud proves to be a dry hole. The patrol would also have a decent chance of running across Crook's battle space, and reporting that to Custer upon return, would give Custer some of what he needs most - information.

Regardless of which course of action Custer chooses, he risks detection. In truth he has most probably already been detected and under constant observation. One thing a commander must assume before he goes out of the front gate to do battle is, that the enemy is just as smart or smarter than you are. You live a lot longer that way. Counter-reconnaissance is something that should always be assumed. You hope you are not found, but at the same time base all your actions on the idea you are. I believe it is highly likely that Custer had been picked up by Indian counter-reconnaissance, just as surely as Crook had been picked up the week before. The Indians went straight as an arrow (pardon the pun) to Crook. Why? Because they knew exactly where he was, by virtue of counter-reconnaissance. When you look for the bad guys, bet every farthing in your pocket that they are looking for you as well.

Had Custer gained knowledge of Crook's battle, he could relieve himself of a couple of his previous assumptions.

a. The Indians will scatter. Yes they do when the situation fits the solution. Finding Crook's battle though it could be concluded that they would not scatter had they known soldiers in great number were in theater looking for them. Mass provides security.

b. Massing in times of danger would also mean that the Indians would camp in tribal circles cheek by jowl. Normally when they travel in mass and no danger is present they will camp with circles further apart as they did on the Washita. Overlooking this factor of Indian life will cost Custer dearly on the 25th.

All that said, I concur with the recommendation of choosing Course of Action One. It provides the bast chance of future success, gaining information, while still husbanding your combat power by rest of man and mount.

[azranger]

I agree with Chuck. Stay on the Rosebud near where Tall Bull lives currently. Send scouts in both directions. They would discover where Crazy Horse came across from moving up South Fork Reno Creek. I drove it this June. These roads are put in natural travel corridors. Starting from near the Kirby Saloon I traveled the road that leads to Lodge Grass. Before reaching Lodge there is a Su road junction that leads to Reno Creek. It goes through private property. The roads weren't there for Crazy Horse but the valleys  these road move through were there.

I think any discovery of new information up the Rosebud would help to mitigate not following the order. 

Regards

Steve

[quincannon]

You need to vote Steve. Just click the appropriate answer.

Sidebar: I heard the other day that Arizona is experiencing a severe rise in COVID cases. Trust you are well and staying safe.

[Deleted]

Please note in the opening post, I inserted commentary (in black italics) about the possible effect of continuing down the Rosebud, but it is not included as a decision item since no one knew about it, so it plays no function in my reccommendation. An interesting artifact nonetheless.

[Beth]

First, Mike black italics are near impossible to read.  Would you or do you mind if I change it to a different color? I would suggest yellow, red, bright green or orange-anything that is high contrast.

Second,  Option one gives Custer the most options to act/react to whatever the NA are doing. Option 1 still leaves option 3 open only delayed, it is a balance between staying within he orders but gaining more information.

Custer has just driven his horses and troops hard, the value of fresh troops and horses would be taking proper care of his perhaps Custer's most valuable asset so Option 2 is not a good choice.

[mac]

I am going with 1.

But...question;

"If the situation is unchanged, may delay my ability to attack"

Does a delay matter?

I am wondering about Custer's responsibility to the strategic intent. The whole purpose was to coordinate a multiple column attack for the 26th. Custer seems to be moving to catch, rather than to coordinate and contain. Is that, of itself, disobeying orders?

[Deleted]

By that I meant if the village is in the same place, if he does not start moving soon, he will lose time waiting for the scouts to return, which will cost more time. What if the village starts to move and break up after the scouts are up there? They might be easier to attack if on the move, but if the split up then he has a harder task.

As to disobeying orders, as soon as he leaves the Rosebud he dishonest his orders again. At this point he doesn't think he's been detected and nor is the village in close proximity to the Indians. This the clause Terry gives him when "nearly in contact with the enemy" doesn't apply.

He's already decided to go off the route, but the exercise tries to consider reasonable courses of action.

[benteen]

(Col) Mikerobel,

I respect and appreciate your extensive military knowledge. I also enjoy your questions, as it causes us to put on our thinking caps. However, I must ask you. Is your question based on what a competent field grade Officer such as yourself or QC or Montrose on the other board would do in order to complete an assignment or mission given to you by your commander, or are you asking about Custer, which to me is a different entity altogether.


Be Well
Dan

[Deleted]

Dan,

No rank is necessary and it is LTC anyway, not COL. 

I am not specifically trying to channel Custer because what is out there to use as a model is so polarized one way or another that it does not bear any resemblance to the man.  The methodolgy I am using is based on doctrine that has been in place at least since 1968, if not before although there was probably not anything so formal in the 1800s in the US Army.  Officers are taught the methodology before and after commissioning.

Still, Custer had to have some process.  He may have always gone with his first gut instinct, but I believe upon reaching the Crows Rest his preferred course of action was lie low the rest of the day, reconnoiter, and move up into position to attack at daylight.  He was not really sure the village was there and he did not know where it was as we would today from reconnaissance/satellite photos, radio intercepts, etc.  Only upon being (wrongly) convinced he had been discovered pushed him to the daylight attack in which he did achieve surprise on the Indians.  But I think he was still going to attack, but he did have an awareness of considering alternatives.  IMO.  LOL.

[quincannon]

To Dan: To Mike's comments I would add that this procedure has been around since at least Caesar's time. You can read a bit of it in his Commentaries, and if you don't read it in the original Latin, your Catholic School upbringing is sadly lacking.

It's just more formal now, but really it is very similar to how we make decisions about our everyday life. Do I go to the Safeway now, or should I wait until tomorrow. If I go now I can hit the sale on Twinkies, but tomorrow there will be no more sale on Twinkies, but Heath Bars will be on sale. Hell, I like Heath Bars better than Twinkies. I'll go tomorrow.

Custer did the same thing. He must have. Unfortunately he was too early for the sale on either Twinkies or Heath Bars, and there was a five hundred pound gorilla inside the door of the Safeway, that did not much care for the way Custer combed his hair. Haste old son, is something to be avoided at all costs. It makes you forget what you learned. That does not mean speed should not be used, but speed in a deliberate manner. Haste and speed are as different as night and day.

I've told you a hundred times about that Colonel / Lieutenant Colonel stuff. It seems neither Mike nor I like to be reminded about our past misdeeds.

[benteen]

Jan 29, 2021 21:37:07 GMT quincannon said:

I've to you a hundred times about that Colonel / Lieutenant Colonel stuff. It seems neither Mike nor I like to be reminded about our past misdeeds.

LOL...OK Chuck gotcha...

Be Well
Dan

[benteen]

Mike,

Thank you for the response. Based on your response would I be correct in that what your questions are based on is what an Officer with modern day doctrine, common sense, and as QC said, the process we use to make every day decisions?

Be Well
Dan

[colt45]

CoA1 is the only rational choice in my opinion. This is due to tired men and mounts reducing their effectiveness. Scouts are meant for scouting so the main body doesn't have to spend time and resources doing the scout function. Besides continuing scouting the Rosebud, and thus finding the Crook battleground, scouts should also have gone ahead over the divide, following the Indian trail. The main body should have remained at the halt point, resting and preparing for the upcoming action (initially intended for the 26th).

As QC pointed out, haste makes waste. Custer should have stayed put rather than rushing to attack on the 25th. Scouts moving toward the village could have reported the Indian actions or inactions, thus giving Custer the valuable information he needed, and he would be in better shape for a fight, having rested both men and mounts.

[Deleted]

Jan 29, 2021 22:12:27 GMT benteen said:

Mike,

Thank you for the response. Based on your response would I be correct in that what your questions are based on is what an Officer with modern day doctrine, common sense, and as QC said, the process we use to make every day decisions?

Be Well
Dan

Argh.  That's a hard question.  I am, as I said up thread, an armored cavalryman, so I Custer and I probably share some traits you may not see in my armor or infantry comrades.  Doctrine is a guide and I think many officer's today do not understand our doctrine because they don't really study it.  I do, as you may have noticed, consider myself a tactician.  Doctrine is how we think we will do things and provides us a way to communicate it.  American Officers do not feel particularly compelled to follow doctrine.  I had one commander who like to used the Zulu Bull method (head, horns, loins) and another that liked to have on of our battalions do a movement to contact (MTC) like a Soviet Motorized Regiment (not that he had any business telling the battalion commander how to do the MTC, which made him a little more Soviet anyway...

I think the thought process is more due to critical thinking ability whether it is self developed or somehow forced into it - I think if you want to be really successful, you have to be a Renaissance Man*).  At the National Training Center (NTC) as the S-4 (Supply Officer), I once seized control of the planning process away from the S-3 Plans Officer who had no idea what he was doing (IMHO) and had pretty much ignored my hints and coaching up to that point.  The Staff Observer, sitting next to our Executive Officer (XO), who was reading a newspaper, said "Pete, what is the S-4 doing?"  XO said, "It looks to me like he finally got fed up with the way the plans officer tries to plan operations and is teaching the staff how to do it."  Observer said, "What are you going to do about it?"  XO:  "Nothing.  It will probably be the best operation of the rotation."  Pete later told me we "won" the engagement and a parade of other officers came into the Tactical Operations Center (TOC) to watch me at work and was specifically mentioned in the After Action Review (AAR).  I think any success was due to the battalions execution of the plan more so than any brilliance on my part, but I will say my Commander said publically in the finalAAR that "My S-4 was magnificent and I wish he had been my S-4 in Desert Storm."  To my irritation, the Plans officer later got command of the 1st Squadron/11 ACR and I suppose did pretty well after that.


*I like to think I am a Renaissance Man, but I am probably only moderately successful, but well enough to be comfortable in my life as I retired and look back what I did, provide for my future, and continue to pursue varioust windmills.