Decision Point 1: Send Herendeen down Tullock's Creek.

[Deleted]

Who	Timeline	Location	Local Time	Clock Time	Event
Custer	None	Vicinity Rosebud/Deafy Creek Junction DD:  -107.008 45.549 MGRS:  13TCL432444585	241830JUN	241957JUN	Send Herendeen to Scout Tullock's Creek

The first decision point appears to happen in between the Regiment departing the Muddy Creek Area and before reaching the Busby Creek/Rosebud river junction/bend.  There is no line of sight between the Regiments location that allows it to see into Tullock's Creek, but it is obvious the trail continues up the Rosebud.

Notes:
DD = Decimal Degrees
MGRS = Military Grid Reference System, similar to the Universal Trans Mercator System.
241830JUN = 24 June 1830 in the Military Date Time Group format.
***TEXT*** = Custer's Decision.

Course of Action 1	***Course of Action 2***
Send Herendeen down Tullock's Creek	Retain Herendeen with the column
Advantages	Advantages
Complies with Terry's Orders	It can be seen the trail continues down the Rosebud
Herendeen can report Trail is clear and of the column's progress.	Does not expose scouts to danger enroute.
Probably does not expose scouts to danger enroute.	Retains Herendeens expertise with the column
May allow Terry to issue further instructions to Custer..	Does not impact troop strength for the mission.
Does not impact troop strength for the mission.
Disadvantages	Disadvantages
It can be seen the trail continues down the Rosebud.	Does not comply with orders.
Row 11 column 1	Does not inform Terry valley is clear of Indians or the column's progress.
Row 12 column 1	May allow Terry to issue further instructions to Custer.

                                                                Comparison of Courses of Action
--It can be seen the trail continues along the Rosebud, even though we cannot see over the the divide seperating the Rosebud from the Big Horn river courses.

--The order clearly states the CG wants to know that Tullock's Creek is free of Indians. Not sending the scout down prevents him from knowing this.

--Neither course of action appears to place Herendeen in danger so if he conducts the reconnaissance, there is a high probability he will get through. This offsets that we may need his expertise    as we continue the mission.

--Terry may wish to change the plan if he knows the creek is clear, which could rob the 7th Cavalry of the glory.

--Neither course of action affects the troop strength significantly as we continue to pursue the enemy.
Recommendation

Send Herendeen up Tullock's Creek because it follows the CG's orders and fulfills one of his Critical Information Requirements.



Feel free to justify your vote.

Attachments:

[quincannon]

Why send him? Because, Terry told Custer to send him, that's why. It was an order, and there was no reason to disobey the order. Had there been a reason to disobey, Custer, the commander on the spot could, and should disobey, citing as a reason the fact that Custer was more aware of the local situation. None of that existed, so Custer was completely unjustified in not sending Herendeen

Concur with the previous recommendation. So it all comes down to the principle that if there is no justification (unknown to the higher commander) for disobeying the order of that higher commander ---- DON'T. Additionally, evidence of absence, is military intelligence, just as much as evidence of presence.

[yanmacca]

If Herendeen was attached for the purposes of scouting Tullocks, then I can't see why he didn't go.

Terry must have known that Custer would be preoccupied with find and following the trail found by Reno, he even blasted Reno for stopping his scout and returning, so it was obvious that was what Custer was going to do, but regarding Herrendeen, he should have been allowed to scout Tullocks.

[quincannon]

I think this is the place Mike wants us to cast our votes,not the test thread, then add any comments we wish to.

[mac]

Send Herendeen up Tullock's Creek.

"Terry may wish to change the plan if he knows the creek is clear, which could rob the 7th Cavalry of the glory."

Pretty good odds that this is why this part of the orders was ignored.

Cheers

[yanmacca]

Hi Mac, we are looking a some large distances here, if Herendeen did find Tullocks clear, would it be too late for him to inform Terry and then he change Custer's orders?

By the time all this completed, Custer would be done and dusted.

[Deleted]

I agree with both of you that there is no way for Herendeen to go down the stream, report to Terry, then carry orders back to Custer if Custer were to decide to attack (as we know he did) and maybe not if he continued South down the Rosebud. I don't think Custer has really decided to attack yet, although he is itching to.

I submit Custer didn't want anyone else near him for the fight, so the thought could enter his consideration. I'm not saying he did consider it or that he even went through a process like this. Just approaching the issue like I would given my training. Useful for analysis, but not going to change history or the facts.

[Beth]

You can never change history but you can change your understanding of history.

[quincannon]

Custer not wanting anyone near him for the fight, are facts not in evidence. We don't know that. We can speculate on the matter until the Second Coming of Christ, but we cannot read the man's mind. I happen to agree with Mike here, but I mention this only because all too many theories are based upon Custer's hubris.  I believe that to be counterproductive. I think the better course of action for all of us is to believe that Custer had a good and logical reason for everything he did "in his own mind".  I also firmly believe that doing the wrong thing the right way will get you beaten nearly every time, whereas, doing the right thing, even though you may do it wrongly, may get you a fifty fifty split in battle. I think Custer did the wrong thing in every major decision he made, but he did the wrong thing the right and proper way.

Custer already knew that Tullocks was a dry hole. Herendeen at that point was not a scout, but a messenger. Custer had no knowledge if that message would be of any import to Terry or not. Had Custer sent that message though, via Herendeen, he would have had no expectation of Herendeen's return to join him, nor would there be any need to do so. Herendeen's purpose was ony to provide intelligence of presence or absence, nothing more. He specified job would have been accomplished. 

[Deleted]

Jan 27, 2021 17:10:14 GMT quincannon said:

Custer not wanting anyone near him for the fight, are facts not in evidence. We don't know that. We can speculate on the matter until the Second Coming of Christ, but we cannot read the man's mind. I happen to agree with Mike here, but I mention this only because all too many theories are based upon Custer's hubris.  I believe that to be counterproductive. I think the better course of action for all of us is to believe that Custer had a good and logical reason for everything he did "in his own mind".  I also firmly believe that doing the wrong thing the right way will get you beaten nearly every time, whereas, doing the right thing, even though you may do it wrongly, may get you a fifty fifty split in battle. I think Custer did the wrong thing in every major decision he made, but he did the wrong thing the right and proper way.

Custer already knew that Tullocks was a dry hole. Herendeen at that point was not a scout, but a messenger. Custer had no knowledge if that message would be of any import to Terry or not. Had Custer sent that message though, via Herendeen, he would have had no expectation of Herendeen's return to join him, nor would there be any need to do so. Herendeen's purpose was ony to provide intelligence of presence or absence, nothing more. He specified job would have been accomplished. 

WRT to Custer's decisions, there are two sayings that come to mind, with respect to Ford B.

1.  Do something constructive at once is better than the right thing hours later.

2.  A poor plan, violently executed is better than a perfect plan, poorly executed.

The Army once apparently ran a simulation exercise with multiple combat arms officers using a disguised version of the LBH so it wouldn't be immediately recognized.  Most made the same decisions and suffered the same resorts.  Sadly, this may be a wives tale, because I have been unable to find the reference again.  It did have to do with using JANUS (Just another useless simulation - no official name for the letters, just the Roman two-faced god) with data provided by the excavation after the fire.  

[Beth]

Mike I tend to agree with you that Custer didn't want anyone else in the fight, and it seems to be backed up by anecdotal evident (As I recall).

Military procedure question though, would Herendeen's orders required him to go from scout to Terry then back to Custer or would he have been able, if it was prudent, gone back to Custer to give him a heads up on the situation, then back to Terry for further orders?


edited to add: there is a big difference between anecdotal and actual evidence but sometimes there can be overwhelming anecdotal evidence that makes something more likely than not.

[quincannon]

Mike the 3rd Armored Cavalry ran squadron and regimental staff rides at LBH when they were stationed here at Carson. I was lent a copy by a friend, and also told that the results were in each on them, having their ears pinned back. C&GS also does a staff ride every other year at least up to ten years ago when I had a phonecon with the fellow at Leavenworth that runs them.

Do something even though it's wrong, is advice I never followed, or ever would. I much prefer to take just a moment, think, then do it right. Peoples lives hang in the balance, and I would much rather see them live.

A poor plan never has success. An average plan has a much better chance. A perfect plan can also fail, because the enemy always has a vote. Unfortunately in this age of ours, people demand bright lights and fireworks, when sometimes a lit match will do, and get the job done. A poor plan means to me that you are fresh out of matches, and are reaching for two sticks to rub together.

Officers get paid to think, then act. They don't get paid to act, then think better of it later.

[mac]

If I was to argue in Custer's favor it would be this

" Retains Herendeens expertise with the column"

I can argue; at that time Custer felt he was close to his main objective, and that this is of more immediate importance than Tullocks.

However the orders simply call for "a scout" to be sent so I assume anybody would do and it need not necessarily be Herendeen. That would send me back to square one.

[quincannon]

If not Herendeen Mac, who, by name, would he send? It would have to be someone Terry trusted, and who could clearly describe Custer's situation to Terry, and perhaps something of Custer's thinking and possibly future intentions. I know of no one that could fill that requirement other than one of Custer's officers, and Custer was already woefully short of them already.

Close to his main objective or not, Custer was not in a position to disobey an order he had been given, without some overriding reason to do so. When members of the military of any rank or position fail to obey orders without sufficient justification, the whole system of discipline falls apart.

[Deleted]

Well, I think this discussion may have reached its end point. Whether or not Herendeen went down Tullocks Creek would likely not have affected the battle, except perhaps there would have been fewer survivors from Reno's attack. It would have given Terry some information he wanted, but I am not sure what use he could have made of it given the distance between the two groups.

It's sort of a no brainer, but I thought it might be easier to start the exercise with one that seemed to be fairly clear cut.

I'll probably get the next decision point up tomorrow or Friday.